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Development of flood prediction models for the Huong and Vu Gia-Thu Bon river basins in Central Vietnam

donderdag, 26 november, 2009 - 14:00
Campus: Brussels Humanities, Sciences & Engineering campus
D
2.01
Thanh Mai Dang
doctoraatsverdediging

The main objective of this Ph.D. project is development and application flood prediction
models to simulate and predict flooding and to investigate the potential impacts of
climate change on the flow in Huong and Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basins in Central
Vietnam. WetSpa model is used to simulate and predict river flow in the upstream
subcatchments and HEC-RAS model is applied to simulate flow and water profiles in the
downstream flood planes. Simulation results show that simulated hydrographs are
generally in good agreement with the observations. The predicted water profiles are used
for 3D flood mapping in the flood plane of Huong river basin. An operational flood
forecasting system is developed for the Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin and tested for the
October-November 2008 flood events. The results highlight that the system can be
confidently used in operational flood forecasting. Statistical downscaling approach is
applied to synthesise the future precipitation and temperature scenarios for the Huu Trach
catchment, located in Huong river basin. The synthesised future scenarios are used as an
input to WetSpa model for simulating future streamflow. The downscaling results show
that temperature will become gradually warmer and precipitation will be less than in the
future periods. The streamflow simulated with the WetSpa model indicates that
streamflow will decrease in future periods.